Grape variety plantings chartThe planting and production figures shed minimal light on the appropriate responses to the supply and demand problems the industry faces. With the exception of sauvignon blanc and, to a lesser degree, shiraz, over the past four vintages plantings have either stalled or declined slightly, cabernet sauvignon in the latter category. Mourvedre shows the most dramatic decline in percentage terms, down 20%.
History is interesting, mainly becuase it shows how dramatic the contrast is of the changes that have occurred over the last two decades. Momentarily going back a further 10 years to 1980, bottled wine sales of riesling exceeded those of all other white wines combined.
Coming forward to 1990, you find that cabernet sauvignon, with 368 hectares in bearing and 934 hectares coming into bearing. The rate of increase of cabernet plantings was significantly greater than shiraz, hence the belief.
In fact, shiraz has continued to grow and there is no chance that cabernet will ever again challenge its primacy.
Merlot had a mere 318 hectares in bearing, albeit with 191 hectares coming into bearing. Throughout the rest of the 1990s its planting continued to increase at a furious rate; of the 8575 hectares planted by 2000, 5390 hectares were in bearing, 318 hectares still to come into bearing. However, in the colloquial, by 20002 it had shot its bolt.
Unsurprisingly, pinot noir has come from a base of 801 hectares in bearing, 328 hectares yet to cone into bearing in 1990. A detailed examination of the plantings on a region-by-region basis (unfortunately, not readily available) would doubtless show removales of pinot noir from warm areas, and off-setting plantings in cool regions. Merlot may have lost its lustre, but pinot noir has not. Its limiting factor is appropriately cool growing conditions.
The omnibus of other red varieties has remained static, and if you compare the 2004 plantings of the trendy new red varieties with those of 2008 in the table its' not hard to see why there has been no upwards movement in this category.
Coming back to the white varieties, the two big movers are sauvignon blanc and the pinot gris, the percentage increase of the latter far in excess of that of sauvignon blanc. Were it not for the Kiwi factor, one would unhesitatingly put money on the back of sauvignon blanc rather than pinot gris. The former can be made with or without barrel fermentation, and with a choice of fermentation methods. The options for pinot gris, by contrast, are much more limited, and the inherent blandness of the taste of pinot gris suggests that once another generation comes along, there will be fewer buyers. The Kiwi factor, and Australia's spirited reply, means much more sauvignon blanc coming through the supply chain. How much more can we drink?
The wild card with semillon and riesling is the advent of screwcaps, and the progressive discovery by those who, deliberately or accidentally, cellar these wines for an extended period of time, and find that they have vinous magic.
Which leaves chardonnay, the leviathan that provides half the total white grape crush, and which - from numerous anecdotal reports - has the largest surplus. Despite the anything-but-chardonnnay (ABC) club, it is also the foremost member of the always-brings-cash club (the other ABC club). Its problems is notwithstanding that while it makes the greatest white wines in the world, it is so flexible and eager to please that it is prostituted to make some of the worst - or, if not worst, unwanted - wines in the world. And, of course, everything in between.
If 10 000 of the 50 000 tonnes target were to be chardonnay, it would reduce its plantings by one third, and here the one certainty emerges. The moment it is removed, vignerons will realise the terrible mistake they have made, and hasten to replant it. When this happens, hope the new French (Dijon) clones will be selected and the right (cool) regions chosen.